Pelosi bill squeeks by...Senate next

As you wake up this morning to your morning coffee and paper, you will find that Congress stayed in session into the wee hours of the night to pass their massive tax-spend-and control health care bill -- the one that requires all Americans to by coverage or do time in jail (yes, you read that right).

The outcome was -- frankly -- no surprise, since voters in 2006 and 2008 chose to give a huge majority to the Democrats. When I said after the 2008 election that "elections have consequences", this is what I was referring to. Those who voted in protest over George W. Bush got more than "hope and change". They gave all of us a government focused on radicalism, wealth redistribution and pernicious regulation.

But there are slivers of good news. The vote was razor close -- 220-215, with 39 Democrats voting against it. My Congresswoman, Betsy Markey, who I am actively working to unseat did herself a huge favor by voting "no". Other Democrats in swing districts got the message of the tea parties and the elections last week and voted against it. All Republicans -- with the exception of Joseph Cao, a first-termer from a liberal Louisiana district -- voted no as well. It was a good showing given the massive advantage that Pelosi has with a Democrat in the White House, able to hand out political favors like Halloween candy. I'm encouraged by the tightness of the vote -- because it will mean even rougher sledding in the Senate.

The Democrat's majority in the Senate is big but soft -- and it will take 60 votes to get this disaster to President Obama's desk. You can forget about the talk earlier this year of using "reconciliation" to pass this (a provision to pass "spending" bills with just 51 votes). Harry Reid has to know that in this political environment that will never fly. 60 votes is going to be pretty hard to get -- given that Joe Lieberman has already come out against it. It will be clear to other swing state Senators up for election next year that they will be in trouble if they support this bill that is increasingly unpopular with their constituents. In its current form, the Pelosi Bill has no chance of getting through the Senate and becoming law.

The true test now is to see what compromises Harry Reid will make to get the 60 votes he needs. He'll need to buy off Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins of Maine -- two liberal Republicans who are on the record as wanting health care reform, and might vote for something less intrusive and punitive. The result is likely to be a heavily watered down version of what the House passed -- with luck it will contain tort reform and more of the concepts that Republicans have been pushing.

But also know this: some bill is likely to become law this year. The election results in 2008 ordained that. The key is to keep up the pressure on the Senate to water this down to be a harmless as possible. The close House vote shows that this can be done.

I will post soon a list of Senators to contact.

Keep up the pressure -- it really DOES make a difference!